Actual Obligation Rates Versus Comptroller Projected Obligation Rates

Abstract

This paper seeks to enhance understanding of the formulation and accuracy of Department of Defense (DoD) Comptroller projected obligation rates in the defense acquisition sector. These projections are published annually for each appropriation account in the Financial Summary Tables released by the office of the DoD Comptroller. To understand the implications of these forecasts on the contracting acquisition area, this paper compares the Comptroller projected obligation rates for procurement accounts with actual obligation rates as well as budget execution benchmarks also compiled by the Comptroller's office. It assesses the reliability of the projections and their consistency with other DoD targets, identifies trends in the accuracy of obligations rates across different accounts, and attempts to isolate factors that may influence the formulation and accuracy of the projections.