Navigating the Labyrinth: Unraveling Schedule Complexity

Abstract

This paper continues our efforts to help advance the state of the art for estimating defense acquisition program schedules. Accurate schedule estimates provide valuable benchmarks for program managers and reliable dates for the availability of new systems for warfighters. But credible (much less accurate) schedule estimates are difficult, at best. This is due to many factors, including programs’ inherent complexities and the likelihood of unfavorable developments outside the control of program management. Recognizing this difficulty, our inquiries center on improving the art of estimating schedules, and also making program schedules more resilient with respect to those difficulties. Accordingly, we also focus on the role of Systems Dynamics in program execution (illustrated with case studies) and on improving management information through prediction markets. Despite the difficulties, we remain convinced that improvements are possible.