Attrition or Retention? Exploring 4-Year and 6-Year Outcomes Among Navy Enlisted Sailors

Abstract

In this thesis, I estimate 4-year attrition and 6-year retention outcomes among Navy enlisted Sailors, examining patterns by demographics, pre-accession, and occupational characteristics. Using longitudinal data for Sailors accessing the Navy between fiscal years 2012–2017 and observed annually until separation or September 2023, I estimate logistic regressions and Kaplan-Meier Survival curve analysis using Cox Proportional Hazard Model to identify predictors of Sailors’ attrition and retention behaviors. Results for 4-year attrition models show that women with either very high (college) or low (GED) educational attainment and Sailors in technical and mechanical occupational ratings have higher attrition rates compared to their counterparts. Six-year retention models show that Hispanics, racial minorities, and enlisted Sailors in Information Warfare and Admin & Supply broad occupational ratings are statistically more likely to retain past the initial 6 years of active-duty service. Accession waivers do not show a difference in attrition or retention outcomes, although I did not examine waivers by different categories. The absence of data on 4-, 5-, and 6-year initial enlistment obligations limits the ability to fully distinguish attrition and retention patterns across various contract lengths. However, the findings reveal characteristics policymakers can focus on for potential policy adjustments aimed at improving retention and attrition for Sailors to support the Navy.