Navigating the Valley of Death: Lessons for Defense Acquisition from Transitioning eVTOL Technologies in the United States Air Force

Abstract

The Department of Defense faces persistent challenges in transitioning emerging commercial technologies into military applications, often stalling in the “valley of death” between research and development and full-scale acquisition. This paper examines these transition barriers through the case of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) technologies within the United States Air Force. Using a conceptual model, the study identifies four primary entry points—sponsored capability, small-scale purchase, prototyping, and experimentation—and six waypoints that facilitate transition. Analysis highlights common obstacles, including the “chicken and egg” problem of securing capability sponsorship, and emphasizes the role of flexible acquisition mechanisms such as Other Transactions, Commercial Solutions Openings, and procurement for experimental purposes. The case study of eVTOL technology demonstrates that small-scale purchases and iterative experimentation can serve as viable transition routes, even when immediate alignment with a defined capability gap is lacking. The paper concludes by outlining potential applications to support broader defense technology transitions and suggesting future research directions to extend the analysis. Findings derive from the RAND Project AIR FORCE report, Amping Airpower—Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing for the U.S. Air Force.