Cost-Benefit Analysis of Surface-to-Air-Missiles for Guided Missile Destroyer Loadout

Abstract

This thesis explores the tradeoffs in risk and costs for missile loadouts on Arleigh Burke–class destroyers with an eye towards firing doctrines. With China being the main threat in the Indo-Pacific, it is important to have a balanced approach to missile defense that is cost-beneficial and capable of protecting the ship and its crew from inbound Chinese missile threats. We focus on two missile doctrines and the estimated costs for an Arleigh Burke–class destroyer, crew, and the missiles shot. The two main missile-firing doctrines used for naval air missile defense are shoot-look-shoot and shoot-shoot-look-shoot. Our work demonstrates that a 60% SM-2 and 40% SM-6 ratio is the best loadout for a 96-cell VLS onboard a Flight I DDG with 50% capacity allocated for self-defense missiles. The SM-2 shoot-shoot-look-shoot firing doctrine has a lower net present value than the shoot-look-shoot SM-6 firing doctrine. This shows that the SM-2 missile doctrine increases the probability of survival, which lowers the risk to the ship and should be the preferred method between the two doctrines. This research recommends a 60% SM-2 and 40% SM-6 loadout plan. It also prioritizes SM-6 missiles with a shoot-shoot-look-shoot missile-firing doctrine for hypersonic missile threats. For a supersonic missile threat, an SM-2 with a shoot-shoot-look-shoot missile-firing doctrine should be used, and for subsonic missile threats, an SM-2 with a shoot-look-shoot missile-firing doctrine should be used.