Constellation: A Case Study of the Effective Use of the Triple Constraint Model & Understanding Cognitive Biases for Navy Acquisition Management

Abstract

The triple constraint model is a tool to help program managers and decision makers understand tradeoffs between schedule, cost, and performance during Department of Defense acquisitions. Given the cost and schedule slippages, and scope drift during several Acquisition Category (ACAT) 1 shipbuilding programs, it is important to understand whether these Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) effectively use the triple constraint model, the cognitive biases present in the application of this model, and how this model could have been enhanced during these acquisitions. This study examines the Constellation-class frigate program, its implementation of the triple constraint model, and any cognitive biases that prevented the delivery of the frigate on time and at a fair and reasonable cost. Using case study analysis and deductive content analysis, the study investigates GAO reports and Congressional Research Service reports to determine the use of the triple constraint model and cognitive biases within the Constellation-class frigate program. The analysis finds evidence of six cognitive biases within the Constellation-class frigate program. These include the anchoring, availability, planning fallacy uniqueness, overconfidence, and optimism biases. The authors suggest using a modified triple constraint model, education programs for program managers, extending program managers’ formal networks, and including commercial project management methodologies within MDAPs.