Did it Work? Analyzing the Effect of the Air Force’s 2022 Decision to Unmask Advanced Academic Degree for Promotion to Major and Lieutenant Colonel on Degree-Seeking Behavior

Abstract

In December of 2022, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall announced that beginning in January of2023, education information would be unmasked at promotion boards for promotion to major and lieutenant colonel, reversing the previous 2014 policy that hid this information. He cited the need for specific capabilities, developed through advanced education, that would be required as national strategic priorities shifted away from counter insurgency operations to great power competition. My thesis examined the effectiveness of the 2022 unmasking policy. Using data from 2018 to 2025 of individual officers between second lieutenant and major, I developed an ordinary least squares and linear probability model to examine the correlation between the 2022 unmasking policy and three degree-seeking behaviors for officers between the rank of second lieutenant and major. Specifically, I examined the effect the policy had on seeking a master’s degree and conditional on earning a degree, the type of degree earned and the quality of the degree. I found that while the policy may not have been effective at getting more officers to earn a master’s degree, it did push those who did seek them to get better quality degrees that were more in line with the Air Force strategy for great power competition