Unmanned Low-Profile Vessels: “Narco Subs” for Contested Logistics

Abstract

This research uses both qualitative secondary research and quantitative modeling and simulation to explore the concept of unmanned low-profile vessels (ULPVs) as a solution to contested logistics challenges for the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific. ULPVs are an unmanned variation of low-profile vessels (LPV), commonly referred to as “narco subs,” which are extensively used by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) for transporting illicit goods. LPVs are effective at evading interdiction, partly due to their difficulty to detect, and are manufactured quickly with low-skilled labor and at low cost. This research uses modeling and simulation tools, including the Next Generation Threat System (NGTS), and found a significantly lower probability of detection by People’s Republic of China (PRC) assets of ULPVs than other logistics vessels. This research finds ULPVs as an effective solution to enhance the U.S. military’s operational capabilities in a contested environment. This research documents possible ULPV concepts of employment (CONEMPs), challenges for ULPV design, and numerous ULPV design considerations, including enterprise architecture (EA), command, control, and communications (C3), navigation, big data, and susceptibility. Finally, this research documents considerations for defense acquisition of ULPVs and informs an analysis of alternatives (AoA) for a materiel solution supporting contested logistics.