Balancing The Triple Constraints and Mitigating Risk: An Analysis of Alternatives for the CH-53K

Abstract

The U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) faces a critical heavy-lift capability gap as the CH-53E fleet approaches the end of its operational and maintenance viability. That gap jeopardizes the heavy-lift rotary-wing capability that is essential for supporting USMC expeditionary operations. This research analyzes the decision to field the CH-53K despite persistent cost growth, schedule delays, and technical deficiencies, and it evaluates whether alternative solutions could better fulfill USMC heavy-lift requirements. Using a capabilities-based assessment, DOTmLPF-P analysis, and an analysis of alternatives consistent with DoD acquisition guidance, this study compares four courses of action: continue CH-53K procurement, shift to the CH-47F Block II, extend the CH-53E while investing in autonomous heavy-lift systems, or cancel the CH-53K and sustain the CH-53E. Results show that although the CH-53K provides unmatched lift, survivability, and shipboard compatibility, it also exhibits the highest cost, greatest schedule risk, and ongoing performance challenges. The analysis finds that no single alternative fully closes the heavy-lift gap without trade-offs, but the CH-53K remains the only materiel solution capable of meeting all validated requirements. If performance is weighted more heavily than cost, schedule and technical risk, then full rate production of the CH-53K emerges as the most viable option for closing the USMC’s heavy-lift capability gap.